The USDA report was overly bearish with a few surprises although not enough to significantly shift markets. Most changes were U.S. based and were the main driver for increases to global stocks-to-use ratios. With no significant threats forecasted Southern & Northern Hemisphere crops we pretty well know we will need a large and dramatic shift in demand or a major problem to occur within the row crops to break out of these low prices.
WHEAT Bearish – CBOT SRW SEPT Down 1.50 USc/bu
- World production for 16/17 UP up 5MMT. EU DOWN 9MMT, Ukraine/Kazakhstan UP 2MMT ea, Russia UP 7MMT, Australia/Canada UP 1MMT ea.
- World consumption UP 3MMT ( Mostly Russia & U.S.)
- World stocks-to-use ratio down again to 34.52%. (Third downward revision in a row).
BARLEY Bearish
- World production UP 1MMT (Mostly Australia, Russia & Canada).
- World demand UP 25MMT.
- World stocks UP7MMT.
- World stocks-to-use ratio UP 44 points to 16.11%
CORN Bearish – CBOT Corn SEPT UP 1.50 USc/bu.
- World production UP 17MMT (Majority U.S.).
- World demand UP7MMT (Mostly U.S.).
- World stocks UP4MMT.
- World stocks-to-use ratio UP 107 points to 21.71%.
SOYBEANS Neutral to Bearish – CBOT Soybeans SEPT DOWN 0.25 USc/bu.
- World production UP4MMT (Majority US).
- World demand UP5MMT.
- World stocks UP
- Stocks-to-use ratio UP 140 points to 24.78%.
