OCTOBER USDA WASDE REPORT SUMMARY
USDA report mainly bullish grains and bearish oilseeds. Wheat saw another month of support with less production, more consumption and less stocks, whilst the USDA lifted the Australian wheat production by 0.8 million MT from last month (we believe they are 2 million MT on the high side for AUS). Barley continue to get tighter every month in these reports, and this month was no exception with production down, consumption up and stocks down. Globally corn saw lower production in the US and a better Brazilian crop could not help that. Stocks of corn are down 2.6 million MT this month. Beans were the most bearish with record US yields and higher global production by 2.8 million MT. Ending stocks jumped 5.1 million MT.
WHEAT BULLISH
- World production DOWN 4 million mt.
- Biggest changes
- Australia unexpectedly UP8 million mt. This should definitely change once harvest gets going.
- Canada UP 1 million mt.
- EU DOWN 2 million mt.
- US DOWN 3 million mt.
- Consumption UP Close to 1 million MT (US consumption down close to 2 million MT)
- Stock levels DOWN 7 million MT and stocks to use ratio down 5 point to 33.76%
BARLEY BULLISH
- World production DOWN close to 1 million MT (mainly in Russia and EU)
- World demand UP close to 0.5 million MT
- World stocks DOWN 5 million MT with stocks to use ratio down a solid 32 points to 15.61%
CORN BULLISH
- World production DOWN close to 1 million MT (mainly EU and US whilst Brazil actually up 1 million MT)
- US yields now forecast at 173.4 bu/acre
- World demand DOWN 5 million MT – mainly in the EU and “Other” countries
- World stocks DOWN 6 million MT
- World stocks-to-use ratio DOWN 31 points to 21.28% (and US ending stocks projected to be down as well)
SOYBEANS BEARISH
- World production UP 8 million MT – (US up 1.8 million MT and Brazil up 1 million MT)
- US yields up to 51.4 bu/acre
- World demand DOWN 5 million MT
- World stocks UP by a massive 5.1 million MT (in Argentina, Brazil and China)
- World stocks-to-use ratio UP 185 points to 27.06%
