The latest USDA Report for December was released on Friday, and globally the USDA Report was overwhelmingly bearish across all commodities. However, the US ending stocks of the key commodities were kept unchanged despite expectations that they might have increased, which combined with fund buying led to a jump in most futures. Globally, wheat jumped a solid 6.5 million mt of which 4.7 million mt was in Australia at 33 million mt. Corn production was up in several countries but lower than expected US stocks supported prices overnight. Beans were also up solidly on the production side but it was almost matched by a similar increase in demand. Overall, the report was more of the same with big crops so the market will likely digest it pretty quickly.
WHEAT BEARISH
- World production UP 5 million mt – key changes:
- Australia UP 7 million mt to 33 million mt.
- China UP 85 million mt.
- EU UP 4 million mt.
- Brazil UP 36 million mt.
- Consumption UP 2 million mt (mainly in Australia, Russia and China).
- Stock levels UP 9 million mt and stocks to use ratio UP 24 points to 34.08%.
BARLEY SLIGHTLY BEARISH
- World production UP 7 million mt – most in Australia and Canada.
- World demand UP 3 million mt.
- World stocks UP 28 million mt with stocks to use ratio UP 16 points to 15.85%.
CORN BEARISH
- World production UP 2 million mt – with key changes:
- China UP 55 million mt.
- Brazil UP 3 million mt.
- Russia UP 1 million mt.
- Canada UP 7 million mt.
- Indonesia UP 6 million mt.
- EU UP42 million mt.
- World demand UP 7 million mt – mainly in the China and Indonesia.
- World stocks UP 4 million mt – mainly in China and Brazil.
- World stocks-to-use ratio UP by a 30 points to 21.65%.
SOYBEANS BEARISH
- World production UP 9 million mt – most of it in India and Canada.
- World demand UP 9 million mt.
- World stocks UP by a massive 1.3 million mt (in Argentina and India).
- World stocks-to-use ratio UP 27 points to 28.85%.
