National rainfall outlook for June to August (issued 28th May)
Summary –
- A drier than normal winter is more likely for the southern mainland of Australia and parts of the tropical north.
- A wetter than normal winter is more likely for eastern Tasmania
- Climate influences include a warming tropical Pacific, and an easing of the warm eastern Indian Ocean
- Outlook accuracy is moderate to high over the northeast half of Australia, southern and central WA, and western Tasmania, with low accuracy elsewhere.
Details –
The chances of receiving above median rainfall for winter are less than 40% over parts of southern WA, most of SA, southern Queensland, NSW and northern Victoria (see map above), with chances falling below 30% over southeast SA, and southern NSW. In other words, this means the chances of below average rainfall is greater than 60% in these areas.
For every ten winter outlooks with similar odds to these, about three or four of them would result in above-average rainfall over these areas, while about six or seven would be below average.
Conversely, the chance of exceeding the median rainfall is greater than 60% over eastern Tasmania.
Over the rest of the country, there is no significant shift in the odds towards either a wetter or drier than normal season.
Weekly rainfall map
(Courtesy of the Bureau of Meteorology)
