Tropical Pacific Ocean primed for El Niño in 2015

Tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures are now just shy of El Niño levels. Large areas of warmer than average water below the surface are likely to keep these waters warm for some time. This increases the odds of atmospheric factors coming into play, and hence further warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean.

All international climate models monitored by the Bureau indicate that El Niño thresholds will be reached or exceeded by June. However, the accuracy of model outlooks during the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) transition period is lower than for outlooks made at other times of the year.

El Niño is often associated with below-average winter and spring rainfall over eastern Australia and above-average daytime temperatures over the southern half of Australia. However, April to June is likely to be wetter than average across much of Australia due to very warm conditions in the Indian Ocean. See the latest climate outlook.